Sunday, February 19, 2006
Having children
This piqued my interest.
Well I didn't think I'd be addressing this issue today, but I came across the blog posts above while surfing the web about dogs. Go figure.
Of course, the notion of having kids is a frequent topic between Mopey and me of late. That biological clock tick-tocking I suppose. I have to admit that I have felt less frantic/distressed about the subject in the past year or two. Maybe I've passed that high-pressure early '30s decision-making point and all our friends and family have already asked us whether we're having kids, we've told them our thoughts, they can see we're not eager/are wishy-washy on the subject, and have lost interest in this aspect of our lives and have "moved on" to other issues.
Which is OK with me, because I've never liked being the object of public or family scrutiny, and have more recently started to care less about what everyone else thinks/does in general. Not that I'm not interested in what people think- I just don't internalize their value judgements. It's like I only want to be around people who are open-minded and in cases where there is mutual respect for lifestyles. So it could be that I have just shed contacts with people who are too opinionated/are negaters. Maybe I am realizing finally that "nobody DOES care" in the sense that they are indifferent to the OUTCOME of our thinking, but are just interested in comparing notes on various subjects.
Or maybe it's all the money in the bank. :)
-Moops
Well I didn't think I'd be addressing this issue today, but I came across the blog posts above while surfing the web about dogs. Go figure.
Of course, the notion of having kids is a frequent topic between Mopey and me of late. That biological clock tick-tocking I suppose. I have to admit that I have felt less frantic/distressed about the subject in the past year or two. Maybe I've passed that high-pressure early '30s decision-making point and all our friends and family have already asked us whether we're having kids, we've told them our thoughts, they can see we're not eager/are wishy-washy on the subject, and have lost interest in this aspect of our lives and have "moved on" to other issues.
Which is OK with me, because I've never liked being the object of public or family scrutiny, and have more recently started to care less about what everyone else thinks/does in general. Not that I'm not interested in what people think- I just don't internalize their value judgements. It's like I only want to be around people who are open-minded and in cases where there is mutual respect for lifestyles. So it could be that I have just shed contacts with people who are too opinionated/are negaters. Maybe I am realizing finally that "nobody DOES care" in the sense that they are indifferent to the OUTCOME of our thinking, but are just interested in comparing notes on various subjects.
Or maybe it's all the money in the bank. :)
-Moops
Saturday, February 18, 2006
Stocks I like RIGHT HERE
Maybe I shouldn't do this because somebody'll read this someday and thank me for incinerating them in some stock that went down... but then again, nobody reads this blog.
Here's a list of stocks on my radar screen:
[A few caveats: I'm giving 2/17/06 (Friday's) close. I have no idea where they'll open on Tuesday after the long weekend. I also won't take any responsibility to update this post if/when I change my mind on any of these names. Some of these stocks I already own, some I don't own. And don't get all worked up if you don't agree with me! I'm just thinking out loud. This is just my personal "shopping list" of stocks that I'm considering and would like to own.]
There are two categories: Ballsy and Chicken. You'll see why.
Ballsy:
SNDK [57.39] I like the secular trend here behind NAND flash memory and REALLY like the selloff from $80 local high.
YHOO [32.76] Another somewhat obvious secular trend (internet advertising)... but stock has been hammered from local high of $43 thanks to soft guidance post 4Q results and the hammering GOOG took after their "not quite perfect enough" 4Q.
These next three may be even MORE controversial:
JNPR [17.97] Whiffed 4Q and 1Q guidance and losing share to other edge router players. But another secular trend I like: network packetization.
INTC [20.61] Yeah I know these guys are roadkill under AMD's boot. Until INTC starts hammering prices and/or AMD has some kind of capacity shortage or manufacturing glitch. I do struggle with how do you tell if the whole "we're lagging AMD" story is priced in. But I'd buy the stock right here. Maybe there's downside to 17, at which price INTC would yield more than cash.
DELL [30.38] Bear case on this stock is that DELL has lost its way and has lost its competitive advantage. I actually think that's true, but temporary. How temporary? Ah, now you've got me! I don't know. I'd buy the selloff we got post the Jan quarter results. Stock will probably perform like crap for the next couple of quarters so buy some now and save some dry powder for later. I think at 18x in print 06 EPS (and 15-16x ex net cash) is a good price to pay for these guys.
Also I think any of these above names could be good candidates for at-the-money buy and writes too.
Chicken:
TSM [9.98] Have you seen the dividend yield on this one? Also, punch up two-year charts of BRCM, QCOM, MRVL and OVTI and you'll get a sense of how TSM's key customers are doing. Migration to 100% 90nm and below, particularly 65nm, really helps these guys and their competitive advantage over the other wafer foundries, and helps maintain, if not accelerate the secular trend towards fabless semi manufacturing.
NOK [18.77] Another great dividend story--yields 2.4%. Handset portfolio going from pathetic and stale to pretty competitive. Gained by my math nearly 200bps of global handset market share LAST QUARTER. Has 65-70% share in India and 40% share in China. Has 50% share in Europe at the cusp of the steep part of the adoption curve of 3G/WCDMA handsets. And it's cheap on PE basis.
MSFT [26.70] I think most people either think the Vista OS product cycle is irrelevant or too far into the future to bother investing in now. The other bear case is a specious view that this company is getting its lunch eaten by Google. People, the portion of MSFT's revenues that intersects with GOOG (the MSN segment) is like 3% of MSFT's revenues. Long live GOOG and everything, but that whole issue just doesn't matter to MSFT proper. This company is big, dumb, ugly, pretty cheap and is a great dividend growth story.
Hard to believe there are so many stodgy putative tech stocks that are cheap and pay dividends (and don't really grow of course). Some of these names look more like CAT or DOW than tech stocks!
Some other stocks on Moopy and Mopey's radar screen:
JNJ [59.07]
EWJ [13.30]
ED [45.45] (yeah, we're boring old fogers)
AVP [28.43] what can I say, I like lipstick! I also like China...
I can't wait to look at this post a year from now and see how right or wrong I was!
Here's a list of stocks on my radar screen:
[A few caveats: I'm giving 2/17/06 (Friday's) close. I have no idea where they'll open on Tuesday after the long weekend. I also won't take any responsibility to update this post if/when I change my mind on any of these names. Some of these stocks I already own, some I don't own. And don't get all worked up if you don't agree with me! I'm just thinking out loud. This is just my personal "shopping list" of stocks that I'm considering and would like to own.]
There are two categories: Ballsy and Chicken. You'll see why.
Ballsy:
SNDK [57.39] I like the secular trend here behind NAND flash memory and REALLY like the selloff from $80 local high.
YHOO [32.76] Another somewhat obvious secular trend (internet advertising)... but stock has been hammered from local high of $43 thanks to soft guidance post 4Q results and the hammering GOOG took after their "not quite perfect enough" 4Q.
These next three may be even MORE controversial:
JNPR [17.97] Whiffed 4Q and 1Q guidance and losing share to other edge router players. But another secular trend I like: network packetization.
INTC [20.61] Yeah I know these guys are roadkill under AMD's boot. Until INTC starts hammering prices and/or AMD has some kind of capacity shortage or manufacturing glitch. I do struggle with how do you tell if the whole "we're lagging AMD" story is priced in. But I'd buy the stock right here. Maybe there's downside to 17, at which price INTC would yield more than cash.
DELL [30.38] Bear case on this stock is that DELL has lost its way and has lost its competitive advantage. I actually think that's true, but temporary. How temporary? Ah, now you've got me! I don't know. I'd buy the selloff we got post the Jan quarter results. Stock will probably perform like crap for the next couple of quarters so buy some now and save some dry powder for later. I think at 18x in print 06 EPS (and 15-16x ex net cash) is a good price to pay for these guys.
Also I think any of these above names could be good candidates for at-the-money buy and writes too.
Chicken:
TSM [9.98] Have you seen the dividend yield on this one? Also, punch up two-year charts of BRCM, QCOM, MRVL and OVTI and you'll get a sense of how TSM's key customers are doing. Migration to 100% 90nm and below, particularly 65nm, really helps these guys and their competitive advantage over the other wafer foundries, and helps maintain, if not accelerate the secular trend towards fabless semi manufacturing.
NOK [18.77] Another great dividend story--yields 2.4%. Handset portfolio going from pathetic and stale to pretty competitive. Gained by my math nearly 200bps of global handset market share LAST QUARTER. Has 65-70% share in India and 40% share in China. Has 50% share in Europe at the cusp of the steep part of the adoption curve of 3G/WCDMA handsets. And it's cheap on PE basis.
MSFT [26.70] I think most people either think the Vista OS product cycle is irrelevant or too far into the future to bother investing in now. The other bear case is a specious view that this company is getting its lunch eaten by Google. People, the portion of MSFT's revenues that intersects with GOOG (the MSN segment) is like 3% of MSFT's revenues. Long live GOOG and everything, but that whole issue just doesn't matter to MSFT proper. This company is big, dumb, ugly, pretty cheap and is a great dividend growth story.
Hard to believe there are so many stodgy putative tech stocks that are cheap and pay dividends (and don't really grow of course). Some of these names look more like CAT or DOW than tech stocks!
Some other stocks on Moopy and Mopey's radar screen:
JNJ [59.07]
EWJ [13.30]
ED [45.45] (yeah, we're boring old fogers)
AVP [28.43] what can I say, I like lipstick! I also like China...
I can't wait to look at this post a year from now and see how right or wrong I was!
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
I finally made it to Westminster!
Check this out!
My graduate school roommate and I talked for years about going to the Westminster dog show and this year we finally made it. We went to school in New York, but were always too busy with clinic or classes to get over to the Garden and check it out.
So ten years after graduation we found ourselves surrounded. Doggies, doggies everywhere!
And the way they set it up, you can go "backstage" and pet the dogs while you talk to the breeders/owners. We asked them all kinds of questions- about nutrition (MEM walked away feeling assured she was feeding her sheltie just the right types of supplements), grooming, training and each dog's affinity for the various AKC activities available for them to participate in: agility, obedience, lure coursing, etc.
We also watched some breed judging, in five rings in the main arena of the Garden. It looked like mass chaos but gradually the dogs were picked over and one selected, photos were snapped, and the next breed of dogs entered the ring. Like clockwork. Which might be expected from the second oldest sporting event in the country (after the Kentucky Derby). They've had some practice.
All kinds of dog people were there. From the verbose gay New Yorker llama/dog/goat owner who was discussing potential documentaries about junior handlers with a film maker behind us, to the frumpy folks from all over the country who didn't appear at all selfconscious wearing high-waters in the ring, to the nice normal chatty lovers of dogs who actual knew how to converse with humans too.
We had kind of nose-bleed seats, but MEM brought decent binoculars. And we made the most of it: eavesdropping on the people around us; laughing when the camera suspended overhead hovered too, too close the whole evening; sharing camera-phone shots and showing off customized dog purses and dog jewelry back and forth across the aisles. A sedate, but fun-loving crowd for sure.
Long live Rufus, the king!
-Moopy
My graduate school roommate and I talked for years about going to the Westminster dog show and this year we finally made it. We went to school in New York, but were always too busy with clinic or classes to get over to the Garden and check it out.
So ten years after graduation we found ourselves surrounded. Doggies, doggies everywhere!
And the way they set it up, you can go "backstage" and pet the dogs while you talk to the breeders/owners. We asked them all kinds of questions- about nutrition (MEM walked away feeling assured she was feeding her sheltie just the right types of supplements), grooming, training and each dog's affinity for the various AKC activities available for them to participate in: agility, obedience, lure coursing, etc.
We also watched some breed judging, in five rings in the main arena of the Garden. It looked like mass chaos but gradually the dogs were picked over and one selected, photos were snapped, and the next breed of dogs entered the ring. Like clockwork. Which might be expected from the second oldest sporting event in the country (after the Kentucky Derby). They've had some practice.
All kinds of dog people were there. From the verbose gay New Yorker llama/dog/goat owner who was discussing potential documentaries about junior handlers with a film maker behind us, to the frumpy folks from all over the country who didn't appear at all selfconscious wearing high-waters in the ring, to the nice normal chatty lovers of dogs who actual knew how to converse with humans too.
We had kind of nose-bleed seats, but MEM brought decent binoculars. And we made the most of it: eavesdropping on the people around us; laughing when the camera suspended overhead hovered too, too close the whole evening; sharing camera-phone shots and showing off customized dog purses and dog jewelry back and forth across the aisles. A sedate, but fun-loving crowd for sure.
Long live Rufus, the king!
-Moopy
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Re: Kill Your Television
Funny, funny about the blank stares!
No one could ever accuse Mopey of being out of touch with pop culture: he speed-watches TV on occasional Sunday afternoons to soak up the data. Instead of turning off the brain, he works hard to store up trivia about music groups/videos, current shows, the latest SNL or Comedy Central skits, sports summaries and movie reviews. Since TV is essentially insipid, it doesn't take that long to figure out what's going on. And every once in a while there's something clever to entertain you. And I do like to watch presidential speeches, major sporting events like the Super Bowl or the World Series, and the Weather Channel (why, I don't know- they just can't seem to get our weather right anyway).
My real weakness is old movies. Thank you Ted Turner!! But I still only spend a couple hours a month checking those out. Just no time to watch when I am running/training, reading and e-mailing. Cooking, chatting with Mopes or planning get-togethers with friends. No time at all for BoobTV. Life is waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy too short.
-Moops
No one could ever accuse Mopey of being out of touch with pop culture: he speed-watches TV on occasional Sunday afternoons to soak up the data. Instead of turning off the brain, he works hard to store up trivia about music groups/videos, current shows, the latest SNL or Comedy Central skits, sports summaries and movie reviews. Since TV is essentially insipid, it doesn't take that long to figure out what's going on. And every once in a while there's something clever to entertain you. And I do like to watch presidential speeches, major sporting events like the Super Bowl or the World Series, and the Weather Channel (why, I don't know- they just can't seem to get our weather right anyway).
My real weakness is old movies. Thank you Ted Turner!! But I still only spend a couple hours a month checking those out. Just no time to watch when I am running/training, reading and e-mailing. Cooking, chatting with Mopes or planning get-togethers with friends. No time at all for BoobTV. Life is waaaaaaaayyyyyyyy too short.
-Moops
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
KILL YOUR TELEVISION!!!!
Read THIS.
Moopy and I have had many conversations about this issue.
Granted this guys descends into "the government/political class is trying to control you" a bit too much (I assume who he means by this is Bush and all those bad, mean Republican fat cats). There's no conspiracy theory explaining why there's "no wonder the federal government plans to spend billions of dollars subsidizing the transfer from analog transmissions to digital ones"--it actually has more to do with freeing up EM spectrum for other types of wireless services.
But I agree with the basic line of thinking. TV is wasteful on several levels:
One last thought, I take issue with the fact that you have to make a black and white choice:
Thus the blank stares I get at cocktail parties must be because of something else. :)
Mopey
Moopy and I have had many conversations about this issue.
Granted this guys descends into "the government/political class is trying to control you" a bit too much (I assume who he means by this is Bush and all those bad, mean Republican fat cats). There's no conspiracy theory explaining why there's "no wonder the federal government plans to spend billions of dollars subsidizing the transfer from analog transmissions to digital ones"--it actually has more to do with freeing up EM spectrum for other types of wireless services.
But I agree with the basic line of thinking. TV is wasteful on several levels:
- it is a profound waste of time,
- it saps your creative energies,
- it does NOT inform you; rather it does something far more insidious in that it misleads you into thinking you're informed when you are not,
- it provides a patina of social interaction with the world but no real interaction, and
- it drives people to engage in unoriginal, imitative behavior.
Most important to me is this point: why waste your precious time on this mortal coil vicariously experiencing a phony and warped form of life when you can live your OWN real life directly?
I make one exception for myself, however; I will watch tennis with the help of my trusty VCR. [Yes, we haven't bought a DVD player yet!] Four times a year, tennis basically absorbs two full weeks of my time (each Grand Slam). We all have our foibles. Oh, and I like to watch Pimp My Ride. Yes, I am weak.
But remember Ned Flanders from the Simpsons? This guy's kids are going to turn out like Rod and Todd if he's not careful. Since Moopy and I aren't going to have kids, this issue fortunately doesn't touch us. At least his kids will be able to read and will (hopefully) have attention spans of more than two seconds.One last thought, I take issue with the fact that you have to make a black and white choice:
- Choice 1: you watch TV 100 hours a week like the rest of the cattle out there, or
- Choice 2: you kill your TV and consign yourself to receiving blank stares at cocktail parties for the rest of your life.
Thus the blank stares I get at cocktail parties must be because of something else. :)
Mopey
Moopy is RIGHT--you should LISTEN to her!
Well shit I'd LOVE to live on a Greek island burdened with debt! :)
Moopy, I agree with you wholeheartedly re: the Baby Boomer generation.
And that dumb musical was tired on many levels. If it weren't for the catchy Abba songs it would have totally sucked, instead of just really sucking. Plus the whole Abba dredging up thing was already done well in the film "Muriel's Wedding."
Mopey
Moopy, I agree with you wholeheartedly re: the Baby Boomer generation.
And that dumb musical was tired on many levels. If it weren't for the catchy Abba songs it would have totally sucked, instead of just really sucking. Plus the whole Abba dredging up thing was already done well in the film "Muriel's Wedding."
Mopey
Monday, February 06, 2006
Broadway Shows/Baby Boomers
I had some more thoughts re: Broadway shows. (Don't worry Mopes- I'LL protect you!).
This will be one of many tirades from me about Baby Boomers on this blog:
It struck me that the whole show (Mamma Mia) was directed at BBs- and their kids. It featured middle-aged still-angry feminists ranting against men and their profligate ways- what was the mother in the show doing screwing three guys in quick secession without birth control back in the day, anyway? Someone should have given her a science lesson before letting her loose in Europe. And who would really be cranky about living on a Greek island burdened with debt, since the whole lot of them lives beyond their means no matter where in the world they go. Oh, but I guess they deserve their island fantasies and fulfillment in love and a secure retirement- nothing short of the perfect life- because well they're the Boomers!
I really feel like the whole theme of the show was dated. Haven't we heard enough about flower power, headbanging to classic rock, the shackles worn in matrimony, the bitterness of divorce? The angst of that generation is tired.
Maybe I should have just stayed home and read "The World Is Flat" which looks to the future. That's where my mind is at these days.
-Moops
This will be one of many tirades from me about Baby Boomers on this blog:
It struck me that the whole show (Mamma Mia) was directed at BBs- and their kids. It featured middle-aged still-angry feminists ranting against men and their profligate ways- what was the mother in the show doing screwing three guys in quick secession without birth control back in the day, anyway? Someone should have given her a science lesson before letting her loose in Europe. And who would really be cranky about living on a Greek island burdened with debt, since the whole lot of them lives beyond their means no matter where in the world they go. Oh, but I guess they deserve their island fantasies and fulfillment in love and a secure retirement- nothing short of the perfect life- because well they're the Boomers!
I really feel like the whole theme of the show was dated. Haven't we heard enough about flower power, headbanging to classic rock, the shackles worn in matrimony, the bitterness of divorce? The angst of that generation is tired.
Maybe I should have just stayed home and read "The World Is Flat" which looks to the future. That's where my mind is at these days.
-Moops
Why Does Everybody Hate Cramer?
Moopy, read this. Actually not as harsh as I would have expected coming from the New York Times, but still suffers from the "common investor is an idiot" conceit. These guys act like they're from some kind of perch way up above it all.
Mopey.
-----------------------------
Moopy wrote:
What's his problem? Is Cramer just too damn happy for him?
-----------------------------
Mopey wrote:
I think it's insecurity masquerading as intellectual superiority in this guy's case. Also it's weird how professionals HATE Cramer. My boss's boss, for example, :) really viscerally hates him. WTF?
I actually told him: "why disregard a good thought or idea even if it's from somebody you hate? Even stupid people say smart things every once in a while."
I hope he missed the irony.... :)
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Broadway shows
I don't want to poop on Broadway shows. They're popular. And I used to like them years ago.
But I was disappointed in Mamma Mia, the show we saw last night with my parents. I bought us some very decent seats as a Christmas present to them. Thank g-d they liked it. I spent most of the show OTOH looking around at the audience, watching them hoot holler and dance, and wondering when the same enthusiasm for the show would rub off on me. It did- somewhat- eventually. I mean, Abba created some toe-tapping stuff.
But I couldn't seem to get beyond the gratuitous gags- both visual, as when the groom's pals flopped around stage in their snorkeling gear- and verbal, like the faux surprise the mom's friend displayed when caught in a sexual double entendre, coming from the same woman who earlier in the script pointedly implied she had all sorts of wild ways in her past. It was a little insulting to my intelligence. I felt like maybe I was being a snob- had my self-improvements led me so far from the mainstream? This could be alienating, but was it a bad thing?
Then there were the weak, off-key voices of the young male and female leads. And the grimacing older male lead. The older women had the strongest voices, but they didn't blow me away. The dancing was pretty good. But I was surprised- and this will sound hard-ass- by the poor physiques of several of the cast members. The boys were in better shape generally, but the women had better voices. No one really had both. What gives? Does talent avoid Broadway these days? I guess if you have a killer voice, you make an album. But if you dance well? Maybe you get yourself into a rap video. I really don't know.
-Moopy
But I was disappointed in Mamma Mia, the show we saw last night with my parents. I bought us some very decent seats as a Christmas present to them. Thank g-d they liked it. I spent most of the show OTOH looking around at the audience, watching them hoot holler and dance, and wondering when the same enthusiasm for the show would rub off on me. It did- somewhat- eventually. I mean, Abba created some toe-tapping stuff.
But I couldn't seem to get beyond the gratuitous gags- both visual, as when the groom's pals flopped around stage in their snorkeling gear- and verbal, like the faux surprise the mom's friend displayed when caught in a sexual double entendre, coming from the same woman who earlier in the script pointedly implied she had all sorts of wild ways in her past. It was a little insulting to my intelligence. I felt like maybe I was being a snob- had my self-improvements led me so far from the mainstream? This could be alienating, but was it a bad thing?
Then there were the weak, off-key voices of the young male and female leads. And the grimacing older male lead. The older women had the strongest voices, but they didn't blow me away. The dancing was pretty good. But I was surprised- and this will sound hard-ass- by the poor physiques of several of the cast members. The boys were in better shape generally, but the women had better voices. No one really had both. What gives? Does talent avoid Broadway these days? I guess if you have a killer voice, you make an album. But if you dance well? Maybe you get yourself into a rap video. I really don't know.
-Moopy
