It's the Moopy and Mopey Show

Maybe I shouldn't do this because somebody'll read this someday and thank me for incinerating them in some stock that went down... but then again, nobody reads this blog.

Here's a list of stocks on my radar screen:

[A few caveats: I'm giving 2/17/06 (Friday's) close. I have no idea where they'll open on Tuesday after the long weekend. I also won't take any responsibility to update this post if/when I change my mind on any of these names. Some of these stocks I already own, some I don't own. And don't get all worked up if you don't agree with me! I'm just thinking out loud. This is just my personal "shopping list" of stocks that I'm considering and would like to own.]

There are two categories: Ballsy and Chicken. You'll see why.

Ballsy:

SNDK [57.39] I like the secular trend here behind NAND flash memory and REALLY like the selloff from $80 local high.
YHOO [32.76] Another somewhat obvious secular trend (internet advertising)... but stock has been hammered from local high of $43 thanks to soft guidance post 4Q results and the hammering GOOG took after their "not quite perfect enough" 4Q.
These next three may be even MORE controversial:
JNPR [17.97] Whiffed 4Q and 1Q guidance and losing share to other edge router players. But another secular trend I like: network packetization.
INTC [20.61] Yeah I know these guys are roadkill under AMD's boot. Until INTC starts hammering prices and/or AMD has some kind of capacity shortage or manufacturing glitch. I do struggle with how do you tell if the whole "we're lagging AMD" story is priced in. But I'd buy the stock right here. Maybe there's downside to 17, at which price INTC would yield more than cash.
DELL [30.38] Bear case on this stock is that DELL has lost its way and has lost its competitive advantage. I actually think that's true, but temporary. How temporary? Ah, now you've got me! I don't know. I'd buy the selloff we got post the Jan quarter results. Stock will probably perform like crap for the next couple of quarters so buy some now and save some dry powder for later. I think at 18x in print 06 EPS (and 15-16x ex net cash) is a good price to pay for these guys.

Also I think any of these above names could be good candidates for at-the-money buy and writes too.

Chicken:

TSM [9.98] Have you seen the dividend yield on this one? Also, punch up two-year charts of BRCM, QCOM, MRVL and OVTI and you'll get a sense of how TSM's key customers are doing. Migration to 100% 90nm and below, particularly 65nm, really helps these guys and their competitive advantage over the other wafer foundries, and helps maintain, if not accelerate the secular trend towards fabless semi manufacturing.
NOK [18.77] Another great dividend story--yields 2.4%. Handset portfolio going from pathetic and stale to pretty competitive. Gained by my math nearly 200bps of global handset market share LAST QUARTER. Has 65-70% share in India and 40% share in China. Has 50% share in Europe at the cusp of the steep part of the adoption curve of 3G/WCDMA handsets. And it's cheap on PE basis.
MSFT [26.70] I think most people either think the Vista OS product cycle is irrelevant or too far into the future to bother investing in now. The other bear case is a specious view that this company is getting its lunch eaten by Google. People, the portion of MSFT's revenues that intersects with GOOG (the MSN segment) is like 3% of MSFT's revenues. Long live GOOG and everything, but that whole issue just doesn't matter to MSFT proper. This company is big, dumb, ugly, pretty cheap and is a great dividend growth story.

Hard to believe there are so many stodgy putative tech stocks that are cheap and pay dividends (and don't really grow of course). Some of these names look more like CAT or DOW than tech stocks!

Some other stocks on Moopy and Mopey's radar screen:
JNJ [59.07]
EWJ [13.30]
ED [45.45] (yeah, we're boring old fogers)
AVP [28.43] what can I say, I like lipstick! I also like China...

I can't wait to look at this post a year from now and see how right or wrong I was!