Sunday, September 17, 2006
Barron's is a Stopped Clock
I can't help myself. I have to respond to this article from this week's Barron's.
This is their latest "REITs are overvalued and they're headed for doom!" article (Barron's 9/18/06) on page M4. More evidence that the people writing for this weekly are painfully clueless about investing. This post is a bit long but what I decided to do what post the unadulterated text of the article first, and then include another adulterated copy of the article with my impertinent retorts included in brackets:
Here's the article by itself for starters:
-------------------
When things are going badly at home, people tend to linger at the office. Investors seem to act the same way.
The well-advertised cooling--or, depending on who's talking, collapse--of the market for new and second-hand homes has done its predictable damage to the shares of homebuilder stocks and those of most every related industry. But commercial real estate, as represented by the real-estate-trust sector, has remained in avid demand.
The Dow Jones Composite REIT index is up nearly 20% year to date, 37% in the past two years, and has just about doubled over the past five. This gaudy gain has left valuations near record highs, dividend yields around all-time lows and the bears humbled. As noted last week (Follow up, Sept 11), Barron's noted a year ago that REITs looked toppy. That call hasn't worked out, in part because money keeps flooding into real estate funds.
Consider the numbers. Real-estate-oriented funds are handily the largest sector-fund category tracked by Lipper, in terms of total assets, with more than $67 billion in 276 funds. Adding in the $12.5 billion in real-estate closed-end funds, we get $80 billion in public fund assets devoted to real estate, mostly REITs.
All the real-estate-related segments of the S&P 500 amount to just over $400 billion, counting all homebuilders and even the home-improvement retailers, which account for about a third it. So assets in public real-estate funds total about 20% of the S&P's real-estate capitalization.
By comparison, there is $55 billion in health-care funds, or less than 4% of the sector's index weight. Dedicated sector fund assets for technology, energy and financial services make up similarly tiny portions of their industry's market value.
REITs appear to be too popular to come anywhere close to repeating their recent rates of return.
The heavy demand for real-estate equities in part reflects a zeal for scarce yield vehicles, particularly those that can increase their dividends over time. But more fundamentally it's a symptom crowding in the "alternative asset classes" that's raged since the stock market bubble burst.
Pension funds and others are giddy for direct real-estate ownership as a supposedly noncorrelated asset class that benefits to some degree from inflation. The research firm Private Equity Intelligence recently reported that cash reaised in real-estate private equity funds is on pace to set a record this year, with $32 billion raised so far and another $27 billion set to be raised, versus $45 billion in all of last year. This capital will be leveraged in the service of buying buildings around the world.
The same firm reports that in its survey of 300 current investors in real estate buyout funds, two-thirds said they plan to increase their allocation to the sector, with only 4% looking to trim exposure. All this will drive up purchase prices of properties, thus cutting potential future returns. Keep in mind, too, that unlike land, they are still making new commercial real estate. Just look at the cranes rising up on so many cities' skylines.
In an extensive report this month that attempts to test whether various alternative asset classes are in a bubble, JPMorgan's global strategy group suggests that commercial real estate is getting there but hasn't arrived yet. REITs' absolute and relative five year price appreciation has reached levels last seen in the 1987 and 1997 peaks in the sector, which were followed by steep corrections. Yields relative to long Treasury bonds are also about where they were at earlier tops. [Again would be nice to see some context here].
But REIT leverage is far lower than in earlier peaks, JPMorgan points out.
Real estate is a slow-moving market. REIT stocks have remained in firm uptrends that have proven remarkably resilient. And we've been wrong on the group before. But the stocks are getting far too widely loved and too broadly owned for the risk/reward trade to stay favorable.
Here's the article with my snarky comments. I just CANNOT help myself. :)
----------------------------------
When things are going badly at home, people tend to linger at the office. Investors seem to act the same way.
The well-advertised cooling--or, depending on who's talking, collapse--of the market for new and second-hand homes has done its predictable damage to the shares of homebuilder stocks and those of most every related industry [maybe I'm a total moron but I just nibbled at my first buy of DHI... Isn't the "collapse of housing" the most obvious and overly widely shared bear argument in history? Okay, maybe it comes in second to "the consumer is doomed/overextended etc"?]. But commercial real estate, as represented by the real-estate-trust sector, has remained in avid demand.
The Dow Jones Composite REIT index is up nearly 20% year to date, 37% in the past two years, and has just about doubled over the past five [funny but the WSJ AND Barron's have been saying REITs are overvalued for several, yes SEVERAL years...thanks so much for the advice!] . This gaudy gain has left valuations near record highs, dividend yields around all-time lows and the bears humbled. As noted last week (Follow up, Sept 11), Barron's noted a year ago that REITs looked toppy. That call hasn't worked out, in part because money keeps flooding into real estate funds [this is their version of an apology. "We're sorry we made you miss out on a HUGE move in a staid sector but it's not really our fault--it's those stupid retail mutual fund investors!!"].
Consider the numbers [okay, next will be a series of numbers that seem to add rigor to an argument, but are actually utterly irrelevant to whether the sector is under- over- or fairly valued.]. Real-estate-oriented funds are handily the largest sector-fund category tracked by Lipper, in terms of total assets, with more than $67 billion in 276 funds. Adding in the $12.5 billion in real-estate closed-end funds, we get $80 billion in public fund assets devoted to real estate, mostly REITs. [Thanks for the Numbers With No Context. Really useful. Now how about a graph or chart with some historical data here to help us compare? What is the rate of change? Are these assets exploding upward? Declining? Flat? Now THAT data might be useful.]
All the real-estate-related segments of the S&P 500 amount to just over $400 billion, counting all homebuilders and even the home-improvement retailers [irrelevant subsectors--we're talking about REITs here], which account for about a third it. [Okay, so the REAL number is $268b... maybe you could just say that?]. So assets in public real-estate funds total about 20% of the S&P's real-estate capitalization. [Uh, okay. So? More Numbers With No Context.]
By comparison, there is $55 billion in health-care funds, or less than 4% of the sector's index weight. Dedicated sector fund assets for technology, energy and financial services make up similarly tiny portions of their industry's market value. [specious data alert: health care, tech and financial services are all utterly out of favor right now and energy has only been in favor for a couple of years, not enough time for a critical mass of energy specialty sector funds to be created and marketed to mutual fund investors. Thus assets in all three of these sectors are below normalized levels and assets in sector funds for these sectors are going to be even more understated. This is a specious comparison, made worse by the lack of data for historical comparison. Maybe REITs sector funds have always been big relative to the size of the overall sector? I'd bet money that this is the case. It's an unusual asset class that pays lots of dividends and is particularly sought out by income investors. If you could make the case that REIT sector assets have exploded upward and are far higher than historical norms, then you'd have some ammo. Just saying something's big means nothing without context].
REITs appear to be too popular to come anywhere close to repeating their recent rates of return. [So? Based on ...? Just because they are bigger than other totally out of favor subsectors?]
The heavy demand for real-estate equities in part reflects a zeal [note the choice of the word "zeal". We at Barron's are cold and rigorous in our analysis. Those foolish investors out there are zealots!] for scarce yield vehicles, particularly those that can increase their dividends over time. But more fundamentally it's a symptom crowding in the "alternative asset classes" that's raged since the stock market bubble burst. [Yep those stupid herds of zealots out there rush from one asset class after it crashes--ie, tech--to another--ie, REITs--thus it's doomed to crash too. Also do you get the feeling that this article was hurriedly edited? The past couple of paragraphs don't really follow, and that last sentence is both ungrammatical and nonsensical. But maybe that's just me being a zealot. PS: look for more condescending phrases from those rigorous and "never a bullish zealot among them" Barron's folks in the next few sentences.]
Pension funds and others are giddy [Giddy? Who's giddy? Everybody out there but us anally retentive permabears on the Barron's staff of course...] for direct real-estate ownership as a supposedly noncorrellated asset class [yes a SUPPOSEDLY noncorrelated asset class...if that IS your real name...] that benefits to some degree from inflation. The research firm Private Equity Intelligence recently reported that cash reaised in real-estate private equity funds is on pace to set a record this year, with $32 billion raised so far and another $27 billion set to be raised, versus $45 billion in all of last year. This capital will be leveraged in the service of buying buildings around the world. [Uh and that's bad? In my mind they leave the more interesting question here unasked (and unanswered): Why all the recent interest in real estate by private equity? There has been at least one REIT takeout or LBO or acquisition a month for the past year (even more ironic to see all that buyout news next to WSJ articles calling for the death of REITs by the way). Why? Could it be that office real estate is undervalued? That REITs are also undervalued such that it's way easier and cheaper to take out a REIT than it is to put together your own portfolio of office properties? This is actually evidence for the bull case for REITs. These companies/equity funds are betting with real money and these are the guys that are providing an underlying bid for REITs in the market.]
The same firm reports that in its survey of 300 current investors in real estate buyout funds, two-thirds said they plan to increase their allocation to the sector, with only 4% looking to trim exposure. All this will drive up purchase prices of properties, thus cutting potential future returns [no it means there is still going to be a long term underlying bid for REIT stocks from these investors]. Keep in mind, too, that unlike land, they are still making new commercial real estate. Just look at the cranes rising up on so many cities' skylines. [How about some data here? How many cranes? Are they building offices or residential property? Which cities? Compared to when? What a useless anecdote].
In an extensive report this month that attempts to test whether various alternative asset classes are in a bubble, JPMorgan's global strategy group suggests that commercial real estate is getting there but hasn't arrived yet. REITs' absolute and relative five year price appreciation has reached levels last seen in the 1987 and 1997 peaks in the sector, which were followed by steep corrections [yes, I already got the part about how we're all DOOMED. But again how about some context? Are we about to fall back into a Savings and Loan banking crisis (see 1987 period)? How about 1997--all other assets were crashing because of the Asia collapse so of course domestic REITs outperformed massively. And as for steep corrections? Since 1997 it was just relative underperformance compared to the tech/internet bubble. The late 1990s were ironically an AWESOME time to buy REITs]. Yields relative to long Treasury bonds are also about where they were at earlier tops. [Again would be nice to see some context here].
But REIT leverage is far lower than in earlier peaks, JPMorgan points out. [what does that mean exactly? Please help. Is this one of those "on the one hand, on the other hand" comments to feign balance or is this actually a relevant datapoint? My guess is the former. They shoulda just left it out.]
Real estate is a slow-moving market. REIT stocks have remained in firm uptrends that have proven remarkably resilient. And we've been wrong on the group before. But the stocks are getting far too widely loved [evidence lacking here] and too broadly owned [evidence specious here] for the risk/reward trade to stay favorable. [Wait, I thought we were going to be doomed with a "steep correction" and now only the risk/reward trade isn't so favorable? Which is it? Since we're stopped clocks here at Barron's we KNOW we'll be right at SOME point, either on the one hand or on the other... :)]
---------------------------------
This article would be perhaps somewhat persuasive for us if we hadn't been reading articles saying EXACTLY THE SAME THING for the past 7 years in all Dow Jones publications. Seriously. The WSJ pretty much writes this same article about once every 6 weeks. I circle them for Mopey to read to try and help make her more cynical about the business and investing media. The Wall Street Journal and Barron's love to beat on any sector that seems to do better than it should. The WSJ is even more consistent, you can tell about once every 6 weeks or so the WSJ business section editor comes around, plops himself down next to the junior business writer and says, "it's time for another story on REITs"... :)
The bear case for ANYTHING just seems to sound so RIGOROUS. So erudite. So full of caution and propriety. These are the people who deep down think its improper and IRRESPONSIBLE to be bullish about anything.
The other really convenient thing about "bear case" arguments is you can always be right!! You just repeat your argument regularly. "I hate XYZ stock, it's overvalued and it's going lower." Then six months later when the stock is 40% higher, you can say it again: "I hate XYZ stock, it's REALLY overvalued now (!) and it's going lower." Note that all stocks and sectors have selloffs at times. You've submitted what they call "proof by vigorous assertion" and you WILL be right just like a stopped clock is (occasionally) right.
Note also that if there IS a selloff in REITs, no matter the duration or severity, you KNOW Barron's will follow up with an "I told you so" article. Ah, but will we hear the apology and see the "I was wrong" article? I doubt it based on their history.
Mopey
This is their latest "REITs are overvalued and they're headed for doom!" article (Barron's 9/18/06) on page M4. More evidence that the people writing for this weekly are painfully clueless about investing. This post is a bit long but what I decided to do what post the unadulterated text of the article first, and then include another adulterated copy of the article with my impertinent retorts included in brackets:
Here's the article by itself for starters:
-------------------
When things are going badly at home, people tend to linger at the office. Investors seem to act the same way.
The well-advertised cooling--or, depending on who's talking, collapse--of the market for new and second-hand homes has done its predictable damage to the shares of homebuilder stocks and those of most every related industry. But commercial real estate, as represented by the real-estate-trust sector, has remained in avid demand.
The Dow Jones Composite REIT index is up nearly 20% year to date, 37% in the past two years, and has just about doubled over the past five. This gaudy gain has left valuations near record highs, dividend yields around all-time lows and the bears humbled. As noted last week (Follow up, Sept 11), Barron's noted a year ago that REITs looked toppy. That call hasn't worked out, in part because money keeps flooding into real estate funds.
Consider the numbers. Real-estate-oriented funds are handily the largest sector-fund category tracked by Lipper, in terms of total assets, with more than $67 billion in 276 funds. Adding in the $12.5 billion in real-estate closed-end funds, we get $80 billion in public fund assets devoted to real estate, mostly REITs.
All the real-estate-related segments of the S&P 500 amount to just over $400 billion, counting all homebuilders and even the home-improvement retailers, which account for about a third it. So assets in public real-estate funds total about 20% of the S&P's real-estate capitalization.
By comparison, there is $55 billion in health-care funds, or less than 4% of the sector's index weight. Dedicated sector fund assets for technology, energy and financial services make up similarly tiny portions of their industry's market value.
REITs appear to be too popular to come anywhere close to repeating their recent rates of return.
The heavy demand for real-estate equities in part reflects a zeal for scarce yield vehicles, particularly those that can increase their dividends over time. But more fundamentally it's a symptom crowding in the "alternative asset classes" that's raged since the stock market bubble burst.
Pension funds and others are giddy for direct real-estate ownership as a supposedly noncorrelated asset class that benefits to some degree from inflation. The research firm Private Equity Intelligence recently reported that cash reaised in real-estate private equity funds is on pace to set a record this year, with $32 billion raised so far and another $27 billion set to be raised, versus $45 billion in all of last year. This capital will be leveraged in the service of buying buildings around the world.
The same firm reports that in its survey of 300 current investors in real estate buyout funds, two-thirds said they plan to increase their allocation to the sector, with only 4% looking to trim exposure. All this will drive up purchase prices of properties, thus cutting potential future returns. Keep in mind, too, that unlike land, they are still making new commercial real estate. Just look at the cranes rising up on so many cities' skylines.
In an extensive report this month that attempts to test whether various alternative asset classes are in a bubble, JPMorgan's global strategy group suggests that commercial real estate is getting there but hasn't arrived yet. REITs' absolute and relative five year price appreciation has reached levels last seen in the 1987 and 1997 peaks in the sector, which were followed by steep corrections. Yields relative to long Treasury bonds are also about where they were at earlier tops. [Again would be nice to see some context here].
But REIT leverage is far lower than in earlier peaks, JPMorgan points out.
Real estate is a slow-moving market. REIT stocks have remained in firm uptrends that have proven remarkably resilient. And we've been wrong on the group before. But the stocks are getting far too widely loved and too broadly owned for the risk/reward trade to stay favorable.
Here's the article with my snarky comments. I just CANNOT help myself. :)
----------------------------------
When things are going badly at home, people tend to linger at the office. Investors seem to act the same way.
The well-advertised cooling--or, depending on who's talking, collapse--of the market for new and second-hand homes has done its predictable damage to the shares of homebuilder stocks and those of most every related industry [maybe I'm a total moron but I just nibbled at my first buy of DHI... Isn't the "collapse of housing" the most obvious and overly widely shared bear argument in history? Okay, maybe it comes in second to "the consumer is doomed/overextended etc"?]. But commercial real estate, as represented by the real-estate-trust sector, has remained in avid demand.
The Dow Jones Composite REIT index is up nearly 20% year to date, 37% in the past two years, and has just about doubled over the past five [funny but the WSJ AND Barron's have been saying REITs are overvalued for several, yes SEVERAL years...thanks so much for the advice!] . This gaudy gain has left valuations near record highs, dividend yields around all-time lows and the bears humbled. As noted last week (Follow up, Sept 11), Barron's noted a year ago that REITs looked toppy. That call hasn't worked out, in part because money keeps flooding into real estate funds [this is their version of an apology. "We're sorry we made you miss out on a HUGE move in a staid sector but it's not really our fault--it's those stupid retail mutual fund investors!!"].
Consider the numbers [okay, next will be a series of numbers that seem to add rigor to an argument, but are actually utterly irrelevant to whether the sector is under- over- or fairly valued.]. Real-estate-oriented funds are handily the largest sector-fund category tracked by Lipper, in terms of total assets, with more than $67 billion in 276 funds. Adding in the $12.5 billion in real-estate closed-end funds, we get $80 billion in public fund assets devoted to real estate, mostly REITs. [Thanks for the Numbers With No Context. Really useful. Now how about a graph or chart with some historical data here to help us compare? What is the rate of change? Are these assets exploding upward? Declining? Flat? Now THAT data might be useful.]
All the real-estate-related segments of the S&P 500 amount to just over $400 billion, counting all homebuilders and even the home-improvement retailers [irrelevant subsectors--we're talking about REITs here], which account for about a third it. [Okay, so the REAL number is $268b... maybe you could just say that?]. So assets in public real-estate funds total about 20% of the S&P's real-estate capitalization. [Uh, okay. So? More Numbers With No Context.]
By comparison, there is $55 billion in health-care funds, or less than 4% of the sector's index weight. Dedicated sector fund assets for technology, energy and financial services make up similarly tiny portions of their industry's market value. [specious data alert: health care, tech and financial services are all utterly out of favor right now and energy has only been in favor for a couple of years, not enough time for a critical mass of energy specialty sector funds to be created and marketed to mutual fund investors. Thus assets in all three of these sectors are below normalized levels and assets in sector funds for these sectors are going to be even more understated. This is a specious comparison, made worse by the lack of data for historical comparison. Maybe REITs sector funds have always been big relative to the size of the overall sector? I'd bet money that this is the case. It's an unusual asset class that pays lots of dividends and is particularly sought out by income investors. If you could make the case that REIT sector assets have exploded upward and are far higher than historical norms, then you'd have some ammo. Just saying something's big means nothing without context].
REITs appear to be too popular to come anywhere close to repeating their recent rates of return. [So? Based on ...? Just because they are bigger than other totally out of favor subsectors?]
The heavy demand for real-estate equities in part reflects a zeal [note the choice of the word "zeal". We at Barron's are cold and rigorous in our analysis. Those foolish investors out there are zealots!] for scarce yield vehicles, particularly those that can increase their dividends over time. But more fundamentally it's a symptom crowding in the "alternative asset classes" that's raged since the stock market bubble burst. [Yep those stupid herds of zealots out there rush from one asset class after it crashes--ie, tech--to another--ie, REITs--thus it's doomed to crash too. Also do you get the feeling that this article was hurriedly edited? The past couple of paragraphs don't really follow, and that last sentence is both ungrammatical and nonsensical. But maybe that's just me being a zealot. PS: look for more condescending phrases from those rigorous and "never a bullish zealot among them" Barron's folks in the next few sentences.]
Pension funds and others are giddy [Giddy? Who's giddy? Everybody out there but us anally retentive permabears on the Barron's staff of course...] for direct real-estate ownership as a supposedly noncorrellated asset class [yes a SUPPOSEDLY noncorrelated asset class...if that IS your real name...] that benefits to some degree from inflation. The research firm Private Equity Intelligence recently reported that cash reaised in real-estate private equity funds is on pace to set a record this year, with $32 billion raised so far and another $27 billion set to be raised, versus $45 billion in all of last year. This capital will be leveraged in the service of buying buildings around the world. [Uh and that's bad? In my mind they leave the more interesting question here unasked (and unanswered): Why all the recent interest in real estate by private equity? There has been at least one REIT takeout or LBO or acquisition a month for the past year (even more ironic to see all that buyout news next to WSJ articles calling for the death of REITs by the way). Why? Could it be that office real estate is undervalued? That REITs are also undervalued such that it's way easier and cheaper to take out a REIT than it is to put together your own portfolio of office properties? This is actually evidence for the bull case for REITs. These companies/equity funds are betting with real money and these are the guys that are providing an underlying bid for REITs in the market.]
The same firm reports that in its survey of 300 current investors in real estate buyout funds, two-thirds said they plan to increase their allocation to the sector, with only 4% looking to trim exposure. All this will drive up purchase prices of properties, thus cutting potential future returns [no it means there is still going to be a long term underlying bid for REIT stocks from these investors]. Keep in mind, too, that unlike land, they are still making new commercial real estate. Just look at the cranes rising up on so many cities' skylines. [How about some data here? How many cranes? Are they building offices or residential property? Which cities? Compared to when? What a useless anecdote].
In an extensive report this month that attempts to test whether various alternative asset classes are in a bubble, JPMorgan's global strategy group suggests that commercial real estate is getting there but hasn't arrived yet. REITs' absolute and relative five year price appreciation has reached levels last seen in the 1987 and 1997 peaks in the sector, which were followed by steep corrections [yes, I already got the part about how we're all DOOMED. But again how about some context? Are we about to fall back into a Savings and Loan banking crisis (see 1987 period)? How about 1997--all other assets were crashing because of the Asia collapse so of course domestic REITs outperformed massively. And as for steep corrections? Since 1997 it was just relative underperformance compared to the tech/internet bubble. The late 1990s were ironically an AWESOME time to buy REITs]. Yields relative to long Treasury bonds are also about where they were at earlier tops. [Again would be nice to see some context here].
But REIT leverage is far lower than in earlier peaks, JPMorgan points out. [what does that mean exactly? Please help. Is this one of those "on the one hand, on the other hand" comments to feign balance or is this actually a relevant datapoint? My guess is the former. They shoulda just left it out.]
Real estate is a slow-moving market. REIT stocks have remained in firm uptrends that have proven remarkably resilient. And we've been wrong on the group before. But the stocks are getting far too widely loved [evidence lacking here] and too broadly owned [evidence specious here] for the risk/reward trade to stay favorable. [Wait, I thought we were going to be doomed with a "steep correction" and now only the risk/reward trade isn't so favorable? Which is it? Since we're stopped clocks here at Barron's we KNOW we'll be right at SOME point, either on the one hand or on the other... :)]
---------------------------------
This article would be perhaps somewhat persuasive for us if we hadn't been reading articles saying EXACTLY THE SAME THING for the past 7 years in all Dow Jones publications. Seriously. The WSJ pretty much writes this same article about once every 6 weeks. I circle them for Mopey to read to try and help make her more cynical about the business and investing media. The Wall Street Journal and Barron's love to beat on any sector that seems to do better than it should. The WSJ is even more consistent, you can tell about once every 6 weeks or so the WSJ business section editor comes around, plops himself down next to the junior business writer and says, "it's time for another story on REITs"... :)
The bear case for ANYTHING just seems to sound so RIGOROUS. So erudite. So full of caution and propriety. These are the people who deep down think its improper and IRRESPONSIBLE to be bullish about anything.
The other really convenient thing about "bear case" arguments is you can always be right!! You just repeat your argument regularly. "I hate XYZ stock, it's overvalued and it's going lower." Then six months later when the stock is 40% higher, you can say it again: "I hate XYZ stock, it's REALLY overvalued now (!) and it's going lower." Note that all stocks and sectors have selloffs at times. You've submitted what they call "proof by vigorous assertion" and you WILL be right just like a stopped clock is (occasionally) right.
Note also that if there IS a selloff in REITs, no matter the duration or severity, you KNOW Barron's will follow up with an "I told you so" article. Ah, but will we hear the apology and see the "I was wrong" article? I doubt it based on their history.
Mopey
# posted by Moopy and Mopey @ 10:21 AM 
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